I finally got myself to clean up my beloved laptop. I have been throwing files and folder around since I have graduated from CUHK. This laptop has turn to rather casual use since then. It was an interesting experience similar to those of tidying up my room. I got to see many items that recall what happened in the past 3 years since I started working. There are many amazing photos, letters, project documents, etc. Wow! I have walked through a long journey.
Investment analyst, a career that I never thought of 10 years ago. I thought I was going to be a musician or a conductor during my secondary school. I imagined becoming a robotic engineering when I was in the army and during the early part of my university. I realized that engineering is a dead end in Hong Kong shortly after my 1st year in university and kind of decided that business is the field that will provide better long term prospect. CFP was starting to become a red hot topic in Hong Kong and the idea of helping people who know little about investment to achieve their goals through long term planning attracted me. However, the platform in Hong Kong is too sales oriented and financial planners can hardly be real independent from the influence of commission. The invisible hand then gave me a management trainee position in a multi-national logistics company and rescued me from my disappointment. Being too desperate for a job after graduation and failed to have any better offer, I took the offer. My working experience back in the logistics company was definitely an eye-opening experience but failed to provide me with accelerated monetary reward that is preoperational to the hard work that I put in. So the idea of working in the field of investment crawled back to me. I knew that a switch in career will only be successful if I am loaded with enough ammunition. So I took a year to prepare myself for the CFA Level 1 exam and with some luck, I landed in a Junior Research Analyst Position in a local brokerage house. And now, I am heading to the next step in my career, work in a private fund as a buy-side equity analyst.
It is only recently years that the possibility of working in the field of investment struck me. How does this idea come along in the thinking process? Maybe it is from the basic realization of the empowerment that investment knowledge can provide. I think I should thank Timmy, my best friend in CJC who introduced many investment readings back in those dates. I think it kind of sow a seed in me. (Well, in Christian term). From then, there are countless people helping me to refine my thinking along the path, with each one of them giving me positive affirmation and negative feedback. It is rather a long process since I first know about the investment back in 1998. I think I start to understand where does the conviction of my current career comes from and begin to appreciate that younger people like my brother need to be given time and space for trial and error.
星期一, 一月 21, 2008
星期四, 一月 17, 2008
誇張唱好 無人話你瘋 客觀講數據 客戶不愛聽
【明報專訊】大行報告愈唱愈好，難得唱好的股份股價又瞬即狂?，到底這是因為報告分析準確，還是資金太多，在找藉口炒作呢？
乘?港股升勢，連日不少大行發表報告，唱好個別股份前景和上調目標價，例如瑞信前日以明年水泥供不應求為由，把安徽海螺(0914)的目標價，由原來的60元調升一倍至120元，結果，海螺前日順勢升21％。另一超級唱好的報告，來自瑞銀，該行昨日將神華能源(1088)的目標價，由35.15元大幅調高至101元，神華股價旋即大升超過兩成。
大部分傾向「報喜不報憂」
有分析員說，在監管規則下，他們當然不會為賺錢唱好個別公司，但行內人都知道，所有公司都會是「潛在」客戶，不容得失。加上大市連月只升不跌，投資者又愛聽正面評價，誰有信心走出來唱淡。事實上，證監會早年的統計亦顯示，證券行的分析報告大部分都傾向「報喜不報憂」。
大市氣氛市場消息亦寫進去
有前「明星級」分析員以過來人身分說，研究報告也是大行的賺錢工具之一，只要「估得中、個客鍾意、公司賺到錢」便任務完成，實際分析是否合理，是否依足客觀數據計算，已經不重要。「近排個市升得不合情理，你以為分析員不知道嗎？但誰人敢唱得太淡，萬一個客聽你話沽貨，之後價還繼續升，你說怎辦？公司會讚你分析中肯嗎？公司只會話你得失了個客。」他說︰「做分析員有時也身不由己，尤其是這等瘋狂升市，保險計也寧願跟?大勢走，而不求做到客觀分析。」
曾是摩根士丹利著名地產分析員的卓百德說，以往分析員撰寫報告，都是依從歷史數據分析，如歷史市盈率、資產淨值等，但近年不少分析員連大市氣氛、流通量、甚至市場消息也寫了進去，以致分析未必完全客觀和有理據。「要是長此下去，對分析員行業不太好，亦會令人懷疑分析員的公信力。」不過，他認為研究報告仍有值得參考的價值，但只在於當中的數據和內容，目標價及前景等預測，不宜盲目盡信，必須加入本身的判斷。
事實上，近年不少分析員(銷售方Sell Side)轉做基金經理(認購方Buy Side)，也是因為工作意興闌珊，「與其自己不能如實客觀分析，又要討好客戶，又要符合嚴格的監管要求，又要為公司賺錢，倒不如自己做買方，用行動證明自己的觀點準確。」有業內人士說。
明報記者 姜靜嫻
乘?港股升勢，連日不少大行發表報告，唱好個別股份前景和上調目標價，例如瑞信前日以明年水泥供不應求為由，把安徽海螺(0914)的目標價，由原來的60元調升一倍至120元，結果，海螺前日順勢升21％。另一超級唱好的報告，來自瑞銀，該行昨日將神華能源(1088)的目標價，由35.15元大幅調高至101元，神華股價旋即大升超過兩成。
大部分傾向「報喜不報憂」
有分析員說，在監管規則下，他們當然不會為賺錢唱好個別公司，但行內人都知道，所有公司都會是「潛在」客戶，不容得失。加上大市連月只升不跌，投資者又愛聽正面評價，誰有信心走出來唱淡。事實上，證監會早年的統計亦顯示，證券行的分析報告大部分都傾向「報喜不報憂」。
大市氣氛市場消息亦寫進去
有前「明星級」分析員以過來人身分說，研究報告也是大行的賺錢工具之一，只要「估得中、個客鍾意、公司賺到錢」便任務完成，實際分析是否合理，是否依足客觀數據計算，已經不重要。「近排個市升得不合情理，你以為分析員不知道嗎？但誰人敢唱得太淡，萬一個客聽你話沽貨，之後價還繼續升，你說怎辦？公司會讚你分析中肯嗎？公司只會話你得失了個客。」他說︰「做分析員有時也身不由己，尤其是這等瘋狂升市，保險計也寧願跟?大勢走，而不求做到客觀分析。」
曾是摩根士丹利著名地產分析員的卓百德說，以往分析員撰寫報告，都是依從歷史數據分析，如歷史市盈率、資產淨值等，但近年不少分析員連大市氣氛、流通量、甚至市場消息也寫了進去，以致分析未必完全客觀和有理據。「要是長此下去，對分析員行業不太好，亦會令人懷疑分析員的公信力。」不過，他認為研究報告仍有值得參考的價值，但只在於當中的數據和內容，目標價及前景等預測，不宜盲目盡信，必須加入本身的判斷。
事實上，近年不少分析員(銷售方Sell Side)轉做基金經理(認購方Buy Side)，也是因為工作意興闌珊，「與其自己不能如實客觀分析，又要討好客戶，又要符合嚴格的監管要求，又要為公司賺錢，倒不如自己做買方，用行動證明自己的觀點準確。」有業內人士說。
明報記者 姜靜嫻
星期六, 八月 04, 2007
Who cares about the economic data?
I happen to watch a TV programs talks about the illogical development in Macau. The government was trying to use the Gambling business and real estate investment from immigrates to boost the overall economy.
Nonetheless, employment and housing market for the grass root level are becoming worst for the people in the grassroots level. Although unemployment is staying at around 3% level (much lower than Hong Kong) grass root people did not benefit much from it as real salary continues to stay at low level. A normal night shift security guard is earning around 2,000 per month and rental cost will take up about 700 per month even in the cheapest region of the SAR. Thanks to the skyrocketed property market.
This kinda reminds me of similar situations in Australia and UK with property price increased substantially on a year-on-year basis which slowly but surely eat into the amount each household can spend in real term.
Although investment market is constantly filled with noise (yeah, noise that is similar that we encounter in signal processing), economic data will always reveal the truth of the situation. (Of course we are assuming that the institution that is compiling the data is not cooking it up.)
It fascinates me to look into these economic data in great details. As it will reveal the true status of the economy and let me understand more about the living condition of the people there.
Of course understanding this kind of number are of some monetary values. (Remember the largest “casino” in the world? Yeah! The Forex market.) That is one of the many reasons why so many people are following economic data, especially those that disclose every single movement of the US economy because it has been a great influence of the globe. In the case of Hong Kong, economic release will seldom draw much attention from the public unless it carries substantial monetary value. Additionally, lack of correct understanding from the public and misinterpretation by either ill-willed or careless politicians and government spokesman mislead the public, which reduce the effectiveness of check and balance. Haven’t seen a politician lie without a “blinking an eye”? It is time to read the Monitor Column in the Business Page of SCMP.
Nonetheless, employment and housing market for the grass root level are becoming worst for the people in the grassroots level. Although unemployment is staying at around 3% level (much lower than Hong Kong) grass root people did not benefit much from it as real salary continues to stay at low level. A normal night shift security guard is earning around 2,000 per month and rental cost will take up about 700 per month even in the cheapest region of the SAR. Thanks to the skyrocketed property market.
This kinda reminds me of similar situations in Australia and UK with property price increased substantially on a year-on-year basis which slowly but surely eat into the amount each household can spend in real term.
Although investment market is constantly filled with noise (yeah, noise that is similar that we encounter in signal processing), economic data will always reveal the truth of the situation. (Of course we are assuming that the institution that is compiling the data is not cooking it up.)
It fascinates me to look into these economic data in great details. As it will reveal the true status of the economy and let me understand more about the living condition of the people there.
Of course understanding this kind of number are of some monetary values. (Remember the largest “casino” in the world? Yeah! The Forex market.) That is one of the many reasons why so many people are following economic data, especially those that disclose every single movement of the US economy because it has been a great influence of the globe. In the case of Hong Kong, economic release will seldom draw much attention from the public unless it carries substantial monetary value. Additionally, lack of correct understanding from the public and misinterpretation by either ill-willed or careless politicians and government spokesman mislead the public, which reduce the effectiveness of check and balance. Haven’t seen a politician lie without a “blinking an eye”? It is time to read the Monitor Column in the Business Page of SCMP.
星期二, 七月 31, 2007
Queen's pier n more to come
Going for a hunger strike? If media attraction is your aim than it is totally unnecessary. Who cares if any of you die of hunger? No one really so please save your breath and forget about successfully change the destiny of The Queen's Pier.
And guess what? You are right. Incidents like star ferry pier and queen's pier are just the very few autocratic government decisions that are being exposed. There was and there will be more as long as well don't have a government that have sufficient check and balance.
Give me a ring when I have pomoted to become the real boss of those damn politician. In the mean while, lets sleep and forget about whatever endangered pier.
星期六, 七月 28, 2007
A New Milestone. Yet a New Journey
The feeling of passing CFA Lv 1 is really a great relief for me. At least I don't need to go through the painful process of revising all the way from beginning again. Yet a new mileston means the start of a new journey. I still remember the time when I was staying at the balcony at Hang's Bedok house in Singapore after I am done with my conscription. Relief, yet filled with a sense of "directionless".
When am I going? What I am going to do? What are the available options for me?
I must admit that making decision is not an ability that one is borned with and this characteristic of indecisiveness sticks with me all along. (Maybe one of my goal this year is to remove this bad habbit of mine)
I just feel drained. Totally, with work, relationship, family, everything. I starts to understand why Dong wants to have a year in Australia. Aways from all the the damn things in life that you both love and hate.
Retreat. Retreat...
星期二, 七月 24, 2007
Finally...
Hard work pays off and it is definitely something to blog about.
Just got to know that my 1 year plan did not go into the drain. I have passed the Lv 1 Exam!
It feels definitely relief and here I come the Lv 2 challenge.
Oh yeah! Baby!
Just got to know that my 1 year plan did not go into the drain. I have passed the Lv 1 Exam!
It feels definitely relief and here I come the Lv 2 challenge.
Oh yeah! Baby!
星期五, 七月 20, 2007
Books and books
I am not supposed to buy anymore books.
Well, things do repeat itself and here I am. 4 more collections after visiting the annual book fair in HKCE today.
It is time to have a list of books to finish this year. I shall tie my hands whenever I am in a book shop.
So here are my new precious:
Well, things do repeat itself and here I am. 4 more collections after visiting the annual book fair in HKCE today.
It is time to have a list of books to finish this year. I shall tie my hands whenever I am in a book shop.
So here are my new precious:
星期三, 七月 04, 2007
誰來分析證券分析師?
在中國證券報到這篇有關分析員(內地叫作分析師)這個職業的文章，內容有趣也挺窩心，細細道出分析員面對的苦與樂。
誰來分析證券分析師? 2007年07月02日 鄭卒
最近筆者做過一個粗略的統計數據，今年前五個月，券商賣方行業分析師的深度公司研究報告數量比去年同期平均下降超過50％。和其他國家一樣，券商分析師的投資評級以“買入”或“推薦”等正面的建議為主，因此公司深度研究報告的減少意味著可供給予“買入”或“推薦”建議的股票數量的減少。恰好在同一時期，滬深兩市大盤指數節節攀升，行業分析師們一定程度上“沉默”的表現與如火如荼的市場氣氛形成了鮮明的對比。
原因顯而易見。到五月底市場大調整之前，中國滬深兩市指數上漲幅度再次居世界領先，很多股票在消息、概念的刺激下一漲再漲，遠遠超出分析師的目標價。從價值投資角度看，很多基本面沒有發生變化的股票已經嚴重高估，不少分析師判定自己所覆蓋的行業中已經沒有可以推薦買入的股票了。然而市場一直在上漲，股價表現一次次挑戰分析師的專業極限和職業操守。在這種情況下，分析師可以有兩種選擇：要麼在公司基本面和盈利預測沒有變化的情況下，順應市場氣氛調高估值水準，給予更高目標價；要麼保持沉默。前者可以換來一時喝彩，符合流動性驅動的市場氣氛，後者則需要承受相當大的壓力，甚至失落。但是，很多分析師還是選擇了後者，用一致沉默作為一種表達。
分析師的表現是本輪大牛市中市場種種表現的一個方面，耐人尋味。如同市場、行業、公司和金融產品廣為人們分析一樣，分析師作為一個特定的群體，是中國金融生態鏈的一部分，分析他們的職業特徵、生存環境、困惑與希望，可以為人們認識中國證券市場多提供一個視角。
近年來，中國證券分析師的影響力上升、職業前景被看好，這是一個有目共睹的事實，是中國證券市場發展階段性的必然結果。回顧美國華爾街的歷史，上世紀80年代在證券市場上唱主角的交易員和投資銀行，他們的一舉一動牽動著市場的神經，他們是那時市場的“大佬”。90年代中期以後，“大佬”讓位給了分析師，這些分析師的一個投資建議能決定股價的走勢，他們的一份研究報告能夠為公司帶來數以億計美元的營業收入。同樣在中國，上世紀90年代股評家、莊家是股票市場炙手可熱的人物，他們的一言一行是股票漲跌的依據。如今隨著價值投資漸成主流，研究創造價值，行業分析師成為了市場上發現價值、引導資金流向的主導力量，看漲的待遇、較高的關注度和影響力，使得分析師成為了一個受人尊敬、受人追捧的職業。進入賣方研究機構成為一名行業分析師，是很多年輕人的夢想。
新興市場的特殊機遇，使中國證券市場成為了一個英雄輩出的時代。在歐美成熟市場中，除了網路泡沫時代，一般情況下大多數“明星股”年漲幅也只有30－40％，只有少數商品類、新能源類和科技類股票年漲幅超過100％的表現，分析師靠推一兩隻股票一舉成名難度很大。反觀中國A股市場，現在年漲幅在100-200%以上的股票比比皆是，推薦這些股票的分析師所獲得的職業成就感令很多海外分析師艷羨。
廣闊的職業前景也是行業分析師職業被看好的另一個重要原因。一個優秀的行業分析師必然是行業專家，行業研究的過程是對某一個行業競爭格局、產業鏈、財務特徵和價值因素的深入分析，同時有很廣的人脈關係，華爾街有些分析師的聯繫人名單多達幾百甚至上千人，以保證暢通的資訊來源。這種專業積累和人脈關係都是分析師日後拓展的職業空間的基礎。國內外不少投資總監、基金經理都是來自研究功底很深厚的研究主管或分析師，西方一些大公司中諸如財務總監之類的專業高管也是券商分析師直接“空降”過去的。而選擇創業的也不在少數，所依賴的資本正是做行業公司研究的基礎。筆者的一位朋友三年前成功挖掘Black Berry而獲得北美最佳分析師稱號，如今在多倫多創辦了一家公司，專門向高科技企業提供如何維持高成長的解決方案，做得有聲有色，訂單不斷。華爾街連續13年榮膺《機構投資者》雜誌最佳零售行業分析師達娜·特爾西在紐約創辦一家擁有20多名分析師的專業研究公司，專門提供與零售業相關的數據和分析，研究成果銷售額近千萬美元。
然而，和所有職業一樣，分析師職業風光的背後，是外人難以體察的艱辛。一年到頭不斷的調研跋涉、半夜起來查閱上市公司公告趕寫報告，這已經構成每一位行業分析師的工作常態，每天工作10多個小時是常有的事情，同時要面對每年各種評選的排名壓力，這對體力和腦力構成挑戰。
對於一個具有良好的專業能力和職業操守的分析師而言，壓力不僅來自體力和腦力的辛苦，同時也來自如何在利益漩渦中選擇各種平衡。因為證券市場是一個充滿著利益關係的環境，每當潮起潮落，經歷劇烈的市場波動之後，人們會反過身來，對分析師的市場判斷和投資建議作一番檢驗和評價，一些離開華爾街的有名分析師也紛紛著書，描述他們在特殊市場環境下身居這個高端職業的心路歷程，揭示他們在成功背後的種種困惑、良心掙扎和懺悔。
美國網路泡沫時代，有些分析師成了美國股市的“泡沫添加劑”，絕大多數受推薦的股票最後都是一跌再跌，使眾多投資者血本無歸，也使分析師信譽掃地。中文版《華爾街的肉》是這些著作中的一本，為前科技股明星分析師安迪·凱斯勒所著，他用“我從股市絞肉機裏死裏逃生”的生動筆墨描述了20多年華爾街分析、投資經歷，揭示金融機構如何利用分析師的影響力取悅企業而獲取暴利，介紹分析師之間的論戰和傾軋，以及他們從走紅到隕落的歷程。《一個經濟殺手的自白》是另一本描述更高層次、揭示與宏觀經濟分析師有關的利益衝突的自傳體著作，作者是約翰·珀金斯，初出茅廬的他成名于對印度尼西亞電力需求增長的預測，他“恰當地”理解了上峰的意圖，把年電力需求增長預測為19%，擊敗了另一名資深分析師8%的預測，立即受賞識、重用，走上輝煌的職業生涯。根據作者的描述，一批像他一樣的經濟殺手披著經濟學家、銀行家、國際金融顧問之類的合法外衣，肩負著建立美國全球霸權的戰略任務，向他國的政治與經濟精英提出錯誤的宏觀經濟分析和產業投資建議，誘騙發展中國家落入預設的經濟陷阱，從而控制這些國家的經濟命脈和自然資源。
以上都是一些極端的案例，意在說明商業機構的分析研究不是“象牙塔”，而是包含著某種利益衝突。就中國現階段的企業盈利成長基礎、市場環境、監管制度和分析師號召力，中國證券市場的發展總體上良性而健康，但是資本市場畢竟有共性，各個利益相關者之間的關係在邏輯上有相似之處。中國年輕的分析師群體中，這個職業是他們中很多人進入金融界的第一份工作，或多或少都會遇到利益關係的壓力。
有人做過統計，在1996年到2000年期間，華爾街分析師對9621家公司做出的168281次推薦中，67.9％的推薦為“買進”或者“強烈買進”，29.1％為“持有”或“中性”，只有3％的推薦為“賣出”或“強烈賣出”，這種評級狀況與網路泡沫不無關係。網路泡沫過後，“買入”評級報告的比例已經大幅度下降，一般維持在40-50%之間，有的大行已經降低到35％左右。根據筆者的分析，儘管今年各家券商研究所給予“買入”、“增持”評級的公司數量大幅度減少，但是相對比例仍高達60％至70%，給出“減持”和“賣出”評級的不到1%。評級隱含著直接的利益關係，為了維護與機構客戶、上市公司的關係，分析師縱然認識到某支股票嚴重高估，也不給或儘量少給“減持”和“賣出”建議，這已經是國內外證券研究界心照不宣的慣例。不過單就評級而言，中國分析師向市場傳遞的樂觀情緒已經超過當年華爾街網路泡沫時代，這確實是一個事實，這些樂觀評級中有多少屬於分析師獨立主動的判斷、多少屬於市場環境被動的推動，值得認真分析。
在高漲的市場面前，極少數分析師不斷上調目標價。在基本面沒有變化、每股盈利預測沒有變化的情況下，為了調高目標價位，不是大幅度調高市盈率、市凈率等相對估值指標，就是修正貼現模型的參數。基於一個研究主管的職業習慣，筆者專門留意過這類評級，並對少數作了反推模擬，發現有的高估值股票的永續增長率取值已經高達3-5％，遠超出1%左右的正常值；在股權價值的構成中，終值高達90％，現值只有10%甚至更低，大大偏離合理的參數選擇區間；貼現年限延長到8年甚至10年，超出5年左右的慣例。流動性推動的市場投資邏輯跟價值投資的邏輯有很大差異，硬要在兩者之間建立聯繫，一個“簡單易行”的辦法就是直接修改估值參數。而偏偏在普遍的牛市氣氛下，或許很少人去深究高估值背後的奧秘。對大多數非專業的投資者來說，事實上也沒有能力加以判別。
從工作職責上看，一個行業分析師的職責主要是透徹研究行業和公司的基本面和景氣狀況，理清公司價值的構成和盈利變化催化劑，冷靜、客觀地做研究，認真調研，做好每一個盈利預測。這是衡量一個分析師是否經得起“分析”的關鍵，而不應該要求他們承擔過多短期市場波動的壓力。因此，有必要營造促進分析師遵守職業操守的內外部環境，讓他們專心去作紮實、客觀的基本面研究。為此，研究主管可能要替分析師承擔更多額外的壓力。綜合多年來機構投資者給予優秀分析師的評價，我們發現“客觀公正”、“跟蹤緊密”和“及時溝通”頻率最高。如果行業內各方參與者都恪守這種規則，無疑將有利於為分析師營造一個健康成長的環境。
再就是關心分析師專業技能的提高，給予更大的成長空間。中國金融業發展很快，現有經濟學、金融投資學教學模式難以適應行業發展需要，離實踐有較大距離。而各金融機構忙於業務擴張，疏于培訓，很多新進員工的成長來自“幹中學”和“仍進水池自己遊上來”，職業規範性遠不如成熟市場。我們年輕的證券分析師成長很快，有的從業一兩個月就大量發佈研究報告，少數人卻連基本的從業知識和財務分析知識也過不了關，渴望得到持續、專業的業務培訓。
最後是為分析師提供紮實的研究平臺。薪酬待遇並不是吸引分析師的唯一因素，健全的研究數據系統、統一的盈利預測與估值分析平臺、融洽的團隊學習氛圍和合理的研究人員梯隊配置構成了強大的研究平臺，這既是吸引人才、促進分析師成長的資本，也是提高一個研究團隊競爭力的基礎。
隨著中國產業發展逐漸融入世界經濟發展序列，中國的能源行業、製造業和大宗商品跟國際關聯度越來越強，QFII之所以能夠在中國A股市場遊刃有餘，原因之一正是得益於它們全球研究資源共用的優勢，能夠對宏觀經濟週期和產業景氣做相對獨立、超前的判斷。從本土券商的現狀看，誰先有能力獲得國際化的研究資源，誰就可以在加強研究深度和研究品質先走一步，對某些大行業而言，那些率先在海外設立機構、實現境內外研究聯動的團隊的研究成果將更有說服力，將受到機構投資者的垂青，這當然也將不分析師的成長營造良好的資源環境。
對於一個具有良好的專業能力和職業操守的分析師而言，壓力不僅來自體力和腦力的辛苦，同時來自如何在利益漩渦中選擇各種平衡。
來源：中國證券報
誰來分析證券分析師? 2007年07月02日 鄭卒
最近筆者做過一個粗略的統計數據，今年前五個月，券商賣方行業分析師的深度公司研究報告數量比去年同期平均下降超過50％。和其他國家一樣，券商分析師的投資評級以“買入”或“推薦”等正面的建議為主，因此公司深度研究報告的減少意味著可供給予“買入”或“推薦”建議的股票數量的減少。恰好在同一時期，滬深兩市大盤指數節節攀升，行業分析師們一定程度上“沉默”的表現與如火如荼的市場氣氛形成了鮮明的對比。
原因顯而易見。到五月底市場大調整之前，中國滬深兩市指數上漲幅度再次居世界領先，很多股票在消息、概念的刺激下一漲再漲，遠遠超出分析師的目標價。從價值投資角度看，很多基本面沒有發生變化的股票已經嚴重高估，不少分析師判定自己所覆蓋的行業中已經沒有可以推薦買入的股票了。然而市場一直在上漲，股價表現一次次挑戰分析師的專業極限和職業操守。在這種情況下，分析師可以有兩種選擇：要麼在公司基本面和盈利預測沒有變化的情況下，順應市場氣氛調高估值水準，給予更高目標價；要麼保持沉默。前者可以換來一時喝彩，符合流動性驅動的市場氣氛，後者則需要承受相當大的壓力，甚至失落。但是，很多分析師還是選擇了後者，用一致沉默作為一種表達。
分析師的表現是本輪大牛市中市場種種表現的一個方面，耐人尋味。如同市場、行業、公司和金融產品廣為人們分析一樣，分析師作為一個特定的群體，是中國金融生態鏈的一部分，分析他們的職業特徵、生存環境、困惑與希望，可以為人們認識中國證券市場多提供一個視角。
近年來，中國證券分析師的影響力上升、職業前景被看好，這是一個有目共睹的事實，是中國證券市場發展階段性的必然結果。回顧美國華爾街的歷史，上世紀80年代在證券市場上唱主角的交易員和投資銀行，他們的一舉一動牽動著市場的神經，他們是那時市場的“大佬”。90年代中期以後，“大佬”讓位給了分析師，這些分析師的一個投資建議能決定股價的走勢，他們的一份研究報告能夠為公司帶來數以億計美元的營業收入。同樣在中國，上世紀90年代股評家、莊家是股票市場炙手可熱的人物，他們的一言一行是股票漲跌的依據。如今隨著價值投資漸成主流，研究創造價值，行業分析師成為了市場上發現價值、引導資金流向的主導力量，看漲的待遇、較高的關注度和影響力，使得分析師成為了一個受人尊敬、受人追捧的職業。進入賣方研究機構成為一名行業分析師，是很多年輕人的夢想。
新興市場的特殊機遇，使中國證券市場成為了一個英雄輩出的時代。在歐美成熟市場中，除了網路泡沫時代，一般情況下大多數“明星股”年漲幅也只有30－40％，只有少數商品類、新能源類和科技類股票年漲幅超過100％的表現，分析師靠推一兩隻股票一舉成名難度很大。反觀中國A股市場，現在年漲幅在100-200%以上的股票比比皆是，推薦這些股票的分析師所獲得的職業成就感令很多海外分析師艷羨。
廣闊的職業前景也是行業分析師職業被看好的另一個重要原因。一個優秀的行業分析師必然是行業專家，行業研究的過程是對某一個行業競爭格局、產業鏈、財務特徵和價值因素的深入分析，同時有很廣的人脈關係，華爾街有些分析師的聯繫人名單多達幾百甚至上千人，以保證暢通的資訊來源。這種專業積累和人脈關係都是分析師日後拓展的職業空間的基礎。國內外不少投資總監、基金經理都是來自研究功底很深厚的研究主管或分析師，西方一些大公司中諸如財務總監之類的專業高管也是券商分析師直接“空降”過去的。而選擇創業的也不在少數，所依賴的資本正是做行業公司研究的基礎。筆者的一位朋友三年前成功挖掘Black Berry而獲得北美最佳分析師稱號，如今在多倫多創辦了一家公司，專門向高科技企業提供如何維持高成長的解決方案，做得有聲有色，訂單不斷。華爾街連續13年榮膺《機構投資者》雜誌最佳零售行業分析師達娜·特爾西在紐約創辦一家擁有20多名分析師的專業研究公司，專門提供與零售業相關的數據和分析，研究成果銷售額近千萬美元。
然而，和所有職業一樣，分析師職業風光的背後，是外人難以體察的艱辛。一年到頭不斷的調研跋涉、半夜起來查閱上市公司公告趕寫報告，這已經構成每一位行業分析師的工作常態，每天工作10多個小時是常有的事情，同時要面對每年各種評選的排名壓力，這對體力和腦力構成挑戰。
對於一個具有良好的專業能力和職業操守的分析師而言，壓力不僅來自體力和腦力的辛苦，同時也來自如何在利益漩渦中選擇各種平衡。因為證券市場是一個充滿著利益關係的環境，每當潮起潮落，經歷劇烈的市場波動之後，人們會反過身來，對分析師的市場判斷和投資建議作一番檢驗和評價，一些離開華爾街的有名分析師也紛紛著書，描述他們在特殊市場環境下身居這個高端職業的心路歷程，揭示他們在成功背後的種種困惑、良心掙扎和懺悔。
美國網路泡沫時代，有些分析師成了美國股市的“泡沫添加劑”，絕大多數受推薦的股票最後都是一跌再跌，使眾多投資者血本無歸，也使分析師信譽掃地。中文版《華爾街的肉》是這些著作中的一本，為前科技股明星分析師安迪·凱斯勒所著，他用“我從股市絞肉機裏死裏逃生”的生動筆墨描述了20多年華爾街分析、投資經歷，揭示金融機構如何利用分析師的影響力取悅企業而獲取暴利，介紹分析師之間的論戰和傾軋，以及他們從走紅到隕落的歷程。《一個經濟殺手的自白》是另一本描述更高層次、揭示與宏觀經濟分析師有關的利益衝突的自傳體著作，作者是約翰·珀金斯，初出茅廬的他成名于對印度尼西亞電力需求增長的預測，他“恰當地”理解了上峰的意圖，把年電力需求增長預測為19%，擊敗了另一名資深分析師8%的預測，立即受賞識、重用，走上輝煌的職業生涯。根據作者的描述，一批像他一樣的經濟殺手披著經濟學家、銀行家、國際金融顧問之類的合法外衣，肩負著建立美國全球霸權的戰略任務，向他國的政治與經濟精英提出錯誤的宏觀經濟分析和產業投資建議，誘騙發展中國家落入預設的經濟陷阱，從而控制這些國家的經濟命脈和自然資源。
以上都是一些極端的案例，意在說明商業機構的分析研究不是“象牙塔”，而是包含著某種利益衝突。就中國現階段的企業盈利成長基礎、市場環境、監管制度和分析師號召力，中國證券市場的發展總體上良性而健康，但是資本市場畢竟有共性，各個利益相關者之間的關係在邏輯上有相似之處。中國年輕的分析師群體中，這個職業是他們中很多人進入金融界的第一份工作，或多或少都會遇到利益關係的壓力。
有人做過統計，在1996年到2000年期間，華爾街分析師對9621家公司做出的168281次推薦中，67.9％的推薦為“買進”或者“強烈買進”，29.1％為“持有”或“中性”，只有3％的推薦為“賣出”或“強烈賣出”，這種評級狀況與網路泡沫不無關係。網路泡沫過後，“買入”評級報告的比例已經大幅度下降，一般維持在40-50%之間，有的大行已經降低到35％左右。根據筆者的分析，儘管今年各家券商研究所給予“買入”、“增持”評級的公司數量大幅度減少，但是相對比例仍高達60％至70%，給出“減持”和“賣出”評級的不到1%。評級隱含著直接的利益關係，為了維護與機構客戶、上市公司的關係，分析師縱然認識到某支股票嚴重高估，也不給或儘量少給“減持”和“賣出”建議，這已經是國內外證券研究界心照不宣的慣例。不過單就評級而言，中國分析師向市場傳遞的樂觀情緒已經超過當年華爾街網路泡沫時代，這確實是一個事實，這些樂觀評級中有多少屬於分析師獨立主動的判斷、多少屬於市場環境被動的推動，值得認真分析。
在高漲的市場面前，極少數分析師不斷上調目標價。在基本面沒有變化、每股盈利預測沒有變化的情況下，為了調高目標價位，不是大幅度調高市盈率、市凈率等相對估值指標，就是修正貼現模型的參數。基於一個研究主管的職業習慣，筆者專門留意過這類評級，並對少數作了反推模擬，發現有的高估值股票的永續增長率取值已經高達3-5％，遠超出1%左右的正常值；在股權價值的構成中，終值高達90％，現值只有10%甚至更低，大大偏離合理的參數選擇區間；貼現年限延長到8年甚至10年，超出5年左右的慣例。流動性推動的市場投資邏輯跟價值投資的邏輯有很大差異，硬要在兩者之間建立聯繫，一個“簡單易行”的辦法就是直接修改估值參數。而偏偏在普遍的牛市氣氛下，或許很少人去深究高估值背後的奧秘。對大多數非專業的投資者來說，事實上也沒有能力加以判別。
從工作職責上看，一個行業分析師的職責主要是透徹研究行業和公司的基本面和景氣狀況，理清公司價值的構成和盈利變化催化劑，冷靜、客觀地做研究，認真調研，做好每一個盈利預測。這是衡量一個分析師是否經得起“分析”的關鍵，而不應該要求他們承擔過多短期市場波動的壓力。因此，有必要營造促進分析師遵守職業操守的內外部環境，讓他們專心去作紮實、客觀的基本面研究。為此，研究主管可能要替分析師承擔更多額外的壓力。綜合多年來機構投資者給予優秀分析師的評價，我們發現“客觀公正”、“跟蹤緊密”和“及時溝通”頻率最高。如果行業內各方參與者都恪守這種規則，無疑將有利於為分析師營造一個健康成長的環境。
再就是關心分析師專業技能的提高，給予更大的成長空間。中國金融業發展很快，現有經濟學、金融投資學教學模式難以適應行業發展需要，離實踐有較大距離。而各金融機構忙於業務擴張，疏于培訓，很多新進員工的成長來自“幹中學”和“仍進水池自己遊上來”，職業規範性遠不如成熟市場。我們年輕的證券分析師成長很快，有的從業一兩個月就大量發佈研究報告，少數人卻連基本的從業知識和財務分析知識也過不了關，渴望得到持續、專業的業務培訓。
最後是為分析師提供紮實的研究平臺。薪酬待遇並不是吸引分析師的唯一因素，健全的研究數據系統、統一的盈利預測與估值分析平臺、融洽的團隊學習氛圍和合理的研究人員梯隊配置構成了強大的研究平臺，這既是吸引人才、促進分析師成長的資本，也是提高一個研究團隊競爭力的基礎。
隨著中國產業發展逐漸融入世界經濟發展序列，中國的能源行業、製造業和大宗商品跟國際關聯度越來越強，QFII之所以能夠在中國A股市場遊刃有餘，原因之一正是得益於它們全球研究資源共用的優勢，能夠對宏觀經濟週期和產業景氣做相對獨立、超前的判斷。從本土券商的現狀看，誰先有能力獲得國際化的研究資源，誰就可以在加強研究深度和研究品質先走一步，對某些大行業而言，那些率先在海外設立機構、實現境內外研究聯動的團隊的研究成果將更有說服力，將受到機構投資者的垂青，這當然也將不分析師的成長營造良好的資源環境。
對於一個具有良好的專業能力和職業操守的分析師而言，壓力不僅來自體力和腦力的辛苦，同時來自如何在利益漩渦中選擇各種平衡。
來源：中國證券報
星期六, 六月 16, 2007
Are you ready for the long haul?
Sam Walton is an extremely inspiring figure that I have come across recently. He is the first on the biography list. The book “Sam Walton Made in America My Story” put a detail account for the giant discount store ever built in the history of US, most probably the history of mankind up till now.
In the early days of Walmart, Sam and his executive faced all odds and took a path that others consider to be insane – to open up discount stores in small towns that no other retailers were willing to go. What took my attention was not the amount of money that they were making or the retail empire that is shaking the world of supply chain, but the commitment that Sam is putting into his business since the first variety store back in his small hometown.
A humble start, a passionate heart and an unfailing determination. A humble man who is willing to go for the long haul.
Am I ready for the long haul?
星期三, 六月 06, 2007
Lives in US and in Iraq
"At least 183 people are killed in a series of bombings on the deadliest day in Baghdad, Iraq since Operation Law and Order began two months ago."
"A series of shootings leaves 33 people, including the gunman, dead and 29 others injured on the campus of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, USA."
It seems rather ironic to have both news put under the same column in wikipedia some days ago.
"A series of shootings leaves 33 people, including the gunman, dead and 29 others injured on the campus of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, Virginia, USA."
It seems rather ironic to have both news put under the same column in wikipedia some days ago.
星期日, 五月 27, 2007
The Gold Standard? Or a Tarnish Standard?
So everybody says that CFA training is like a “Gold Standard” in the investment field. True. But so far I don’t see any stock research report analyze a company the way it is stated in the curriculum. Well, despite that I am pretty green in the field of investment research I did do my job by reading many stock reports with those big names on the letterhead. (GS, MS, JP, MAC, ABN, DBS, BS, etc)
I do feel increasingly doubtful if what I had learnt during the CFA Exam preparation process is useful in practical life. Or maybe people in the industry are not living to the highest standard? I really wonder.
It will be good to look at how analyst, according to CFA Institute, should analysis a stock some day and try to do it according to the textbook.
I do feel increasingly doubtful if what I had learnt during the CFA Exam preparation process is useful in practical life. Or maybe people in the industry are not living to the highest standard? I really wonder.
It will be good to look at how analyst, according to CFA Institute, should analysis a stock some day and try to do it according to the textbook.
Engross... not on girls, but on my career development
If hopefully I can pass the CFA level 1 this June. I will have more time to, as I have mentioned in the earlier blog, do something different.
There are many plans in my mind which most of them concern about my career development in near term or to do something that has gonna do with my job as a research analyst in the investment field.
One of which will be on publishing stock reseach report like the pros. Just some "hobby" after my work. Hobby? I have heard you shouting out there at the back role. Yeah, hobby. I am enjoying my job so I really don't mind doing this. In fact I love it. Nah nah nah nah nah!
Before I get my hands dirty on this, I shall look forward to my Thai trip after the exam. I love 3S. (The Sun, The Sand and The Sea!)
There are many plans in my mind which most of them concern about my career development in near term or to do something that has gonna do with my job as a research analyst in the investment field.
One of which will be on publishing stock reseach report like the pros. Just some "hobby" after my work. Hobby? I have heard you shouting out there at the back role. Yeah, hobby. I am enjoying my job so I really don't mind doing this. In fact I love it. Nah nah nah nah nah!
Before I get my hands dirty on this, I shall look forward to my Thai trip after the exam. I love 3S. (The Sun, The Sand and The Sea!)
星期日, 五月 13, 2007
You Need No Cost To Borrow Money - 1
You must think that I am nuts but I am telling you the truth is that banks in Hong Kong don’t really require much cost in borrowing money.
Let’s look at the rate offer by one of the biggest bank in Hong Kong – the Lion Bank (I assume you know which bank I am talking about, if not maybe the slogan “Global Finance, Local Knowledge” will give you some hints)
According to our Census and Statistics Department’s press release dated 23, April, 2007, it said “the overall consumer prices rose by 2.4% in March 2007 over a year earlier.” And “the year-on-year rates of increase in the CPI(A), CPI(B) and CPI(C) were 2.2%, 2.3% and 2.7% respectively in March 2007”
So what does all these number means to laymen?? It simply means that the product that you bought using HKD100 one year ago in March will now cost you HKD102.4. The dollar purchasing power is, from another perspective, decreasing because you need more money to buy the same product. The technical terms that financial gurus would like to use is called inflation.
So what does it got to do with borrow money without cost? Well, first you have to know that the cost of borrow money is interest rate. It is the fee that you pay to someone who lend you money in order to compensate him. Such compensation to him is fair because he delay his purchase and forgone the pleasure that he can get from spending the money.
Let’s have an example to make it easier to understand:
Suppose you borrow HKD100 in March last year and agree to pay an annual interest rate of 2.4% by the time you return the money one year later. So you will have to repay HKD102.4 in March 2007. But the problem is that the lender will probably grumble because he earns nothing. Why? Because inflation rate have “ate” into his purchasing power and the HKD102.4 he gets now is the same the HKD100 he lent to you one year ago because of inflation! Therefore, to be fair, he should have lent money to you at a higher interest rate say 5.4%. Now the lender is happier as he will end up with HKD105.4, meaning that he earns HKD3 for 1 year by lending HKD100 to you.
The same case applies in our local banks. You can see from the picture above stating fixed deposit rate for various periods by “Lion Bank”. Remember, this is the borrowing cost that the bank pays you so as to borrow money from you just as the same example above but now you are the lender and the bank is the borrower. Let’s see how the bank will compensate you. It says that the 12-month borrowing cost is only 2.75% meaning that if you lend HKD100 to the bank now, the bank will pay you back with additional HKD2.75 1 year later. So does this mean that you earn the HKD2.75 in full?? Definitely not! Don’t forget the Inflation Monster who will eat into your purchasing power. If the inflation rate in the coming year is 2.4%, you will merely earn HKD0.35 for every hundred dollar you lend it to bank.
You may feel that the argument is not substantial as there is always news saying that there is excess money in the market so it is fair for the bank to give such a low interest rate for depositor as money supply huge.
I would like to draw you attention to the following press release by Hong Kong Monetary Authority on its “Residential Mortgage Survey Results for March 2007”. It says, “The proportion of new loans approved at more than 2.5% below the best lending rate increased to 73.2% from 62.1% in February, while the proportion of new approvals priced with reference to rates other than the best lending rate or fixed rates decreased to 22.4% from 32.9% over the same period.” This means that most of the people are lending their mortgage at around 5.25% given the Best Lending Rate is at 7.75%. So the picture will be that, the Lion bank will take your HKD100 at 2.75% and lend it to someone else at 5.25% to earn a difference of 2.5% profit.
You may think 2.5% profit is a reasonable return for the bank but if you look at the North America Mortgage industry, the profit is much slimmer as information in the market is more transparent and competition is keener than in Hong Kong.
In the next issue, let’s look at the situation in the North America and see if the banks in Hong Kong are earning abnormally high profit.
The Forbidden Topic
The CFA materials are just too boring and the juicy discussions about the recent CU Student Press catch my attention. It is interesting that the first thing that comes across my mind is this old joke that I have heard since I was in primary school.
Yeah. I was not such a decent student in the eyes of adults. Put me on detention, Teacher. Nah nah nah nah nah nah!
Here comes the old joke:
Once appoint a time a boy woke up in the middle of the night to pee and accidentally heard from noise from his parents’ room. Out of curiosity he went towards the master bed room and saw their parents were making love. (Well. He was too young to know what it means about making love.)
So he asked his mum, “Mum, why are you naked?”
Not wanting his son to learn about sex too early, the mother said, “Oh… nothing we are just looking for the caterpillar that climbed onto our bed in the middle of the night.”
“Then why is the caterpillar is now inside the hole between your legs?”
This time the father got a smart reply, “Oh… nothing son, just that the caterpillar is too afraid of the head light in front of the chest of your mum and that is why it flees into the hole. Don’t worry son, we are going to catch it, just go to the bed.”
“Alright dad, good night”
“Good night son”, the parents said, feeling much relief that they managed to hide the adult issue from the kid.
“He is just too young to know about this”, the parents thought.
With all the pornographic filled all sorts of media in Hong Kong, can’t we have some space in the university to discuss about this topic? This is really ridiculous. Shame on you, the “righteous” media and the CUHK Senate.
P.S. For those who don't really know what have the CUHK Student press published, I really suggest you take a look at the one of the “foul” articles that can be found in the CUHK Student press website and judge how unethical and immoral they really are before you trying to elevate your moral standard by indiscriminatingly judge them to be wrong:
******************************QUOTE***************************
文：阿嘉花
「開拓情慾空間」公開論壇，從女同志的情慾到中學性教育到動物愛到甚麼都可以，講者是誰並非最重要，重要 的是相似的聲音其實在我們身邊都響起過，只是基於身份和空間等因素令我們聽不到，可能因為我們以為自己已經聽夠所以拒絕聽下去，或者我們藐視這些聲音所以 不想聽，故此這個論壇必須在光天化日下人來人往的文化廣場大大聲議論紛紛。
幾個女人（拒絕講者這個字眼）討論個人或公眾的情慾空間，絕不嚴肅，有說有笑，你認為女同性戀者是怎樣做愛的？不會做愛？無法做愛？陽具陰道以外，你還認同或實踐過怎樣的性愛？
從 同性情慾到異性情慾，再從兩個人到三個人甚至四個人，假如你的情人想召妓你會怎麼辦？可能你們性生活不如意，可能他純粹想試新口味，他未必不愛你，只是違 反了遊戲規則。規則一直在變，數百年前他三妻四妾風流快活名正言順，數百年後可能妳也可以，正如從前兩個女人是姊妹，如今兩個女人可以是情人，又如古代女 人理應三從四德依附男人生存，現代人追求男女平等。規則不但隨社會轉變，在同一個社會其實也有不同差異，當妳用愛情指責情人不忠的同時，有些夫婦邀約一兩 個朋友來3P4P、有些情侶亦不只需要一個性伴侶。愛情的定義在不同人手中掐成不同的鎖鏈，有時忠誠是忠於對方不忠於自己，未必忠於愛情，更不忠於性慾， 而愛情和性慾為甚麼連起來不能分開，是基於所謂真理還是嫉妒和佔有，然後將嫉妒或甚麼加進愛情的定義上，於是不忠誠，對你不忠誠，對愛情不忠誠。其實他跟 誰做愛的時候，愛誰？
身旁的朋友禁不住說：「但愛情不是exclusive的嗎？」也許是，也許不是。
情慾空間怎止於同性異 性兩個三個，還有人和非人，假如家中的小狗走到你的腳邊，借你的腳來回摩擦牠的性器官，你會縮腳，還是讓牠繼續享受？人們對動物愛的批評（用動物愛取代人 獸交，不只是因為感覺好聽一點），有不少是從動物感受出發，說牠們未必同意、說可能是人的暴力、說總之就是不應該。假如動物與人之間的溝通是可能、假如動 物都有力量反抗、假如應該不應該是人類不停定義不停推翻的規條。其實那些愛護動物的好主人把寵物閹割，牠們怎會同意、這怎會不是暴力、又何曾應該？這些主 人卻不會被愛護動物協會起訴，相反，動物愛則受多方唾罵，如果你愛牠，牠愛你；牠想做，你想做或你不介意做；你想做，牠沒有反抗甚至表現雀躍，也許溝通和 相處不只是牠是你的寵物牠們的生活也不只是吃喝睡覺拉屎和等待主人賜牠一個伴侶。你又為哪條規條下過甚麼定義？
東拉西扯到甚麼時候，那一刻 瞥見coffer corner某位女同學在微笑，很想知道她微笑的原因是否跟我一樣，那些駐足在「酷愛三八」書攤的朋友們在看書還是聆聽？聆聽過後，假如聲稱對情慾空間有 更深更廣的思考，回到個人的情慾實踐，又有沒有轉變呢？有甚麼轉變？如果沒有，又是為甚麼？
Source: 《中大學生報》零七年四月號
http://www.cusp.hk/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=24&Itemid=17&limit=9&limitstart=36
****************************UNQUOTE***************************
Yeah. I was not such a decent student in the eyes of adults. Put me on detention, Teacher. Nah nah nah nah nah nah!
Here comes the old joke:
Once appoint a time a boy woke up in the middle of the night to pee and accidentally heard from noise from his parents’ room. Out of curiosity he went towards the master bed room and saw their parents were making love. (Well. He was too young to know what it means about making love.)
So he asked his mum, “Mum, why are you naked?”
Not wanting his son to learn about sex too early, the mother said, “Oh… nothing we are just looking for the caterpillar that climbed onto our bed in the middle of the night.”
“Then why is the caterpillar is now inside the hole between your legs?”
This time the father got a smart reply, “Oh… nothing son, just that the caterpillar is too afraid of the head light in front of the chest of your mum and that is why it flees into the hole. Don’t worry son, we are going to catch it, just go to the bed.”
“Alright dad, good night”
“Good night son”, the parents said, feeling much relief that they managed to hide the adult issue from the kid.
“He is just too young to know about this”, the parents thought.
With all the pornographic filled all sorts of media in Hong Kong, can’t we have some space in the university to discuss about this topic? This is really ridiculous. Shame on you, the “righteous” media and the CUHK Senate.
P.S. For those who don't really know what have the CUHK Student press published, I really suggest you take a look at the one of the “foul” articles that can be found in the CUHK Student press website and judge how unethical and immoral they really are before you trying to elevate your moral standard by indiscriminatingly judge them to be wrong:
******************************QUOTE***************************
文：阿嘉花
「開拓情慾空間」公開論壇，從女同志的情慾到中學性教育到動物愛到甚麼都可以，講者是誰並非最重要，重要 的是相似的聲音其實在我們身邊都響起過，只是基於身份和空間等因素令我們聽不到，可能因為我們以為自己已經聽夠所以拒絕聽下去，或者我們藐視這些聲音所以 不想聽，故此這個論壇必須在光天化日下人來人往的文化廣場大大聲議論紛紛。
幾個女人（拒絕講者這個字眼）討論個人或公眾的情慾空間，絕不嚴肅，有說有笑，你認為女同性戀者是怎樣做愛的？不會做愛？無法做愛？陽具陰道以外，你還認同或實踐過怎樣的性愛？
從 同性情慾到異性情慾，再從兩個人到三個人甚至四個人，假如你的情人想召妓你會怎麼辦？可能你們性生活不如意，可能他純粹想試新口味，他未必不愛你，只是違 反了遊戲規則。規則一直在變，數百年前他三妻四妾風流快活名正言順，數百年後可能妳也可以，正如從前兩個女人是姊妹，如今兩個女人可以是情人，又如古代女 人理應三從四德依附男人生存，現代人追求男女平等。規則不但隨社會轉變，在同一個社會其實也有不同差異，當妳用愛情指責情人不忠的同時，有些夫婦邀約一兩 個朋友來3P4P、有些情侶亦不只需要一個性伴侶。愛情的定義在不同人手中掐成不同的鎖鏈，有時忠誠是忠於對方不忠於自己，未必忠於愛情，更不忠於性慾， 而愛情和性慾為甚麼連起來不能分開，是基於所謂真理還是嫉妒和佔有，然後將嫉妒或甚麼加進愛情的定義上，於是不忠誠，對你不忠誠，對愛情不忠誠。其實他跟 誰做愛的時候，愛誰？
身旁的朋友禁不住說：「但愛情不是exclusive的嗎？」也許是，也許不是。
情慾空間怎止於同性異 性兩個三個，還有人和非人，假如家中的小狗走到你的腳邊，借你的腳來回摩擦牠的性器官，你會縮腳，還是讓牠繼續享受？人們對動物愛的批評（用動物愛取代人 獸交，不只是因為感覺好聽一點），有不少是從動物感受出發，說牠們未必同意、說可能是人的暴力、說總之就是不應該。假如動物與人之間的溝通是可能、假如動 物都有力量反抗、假如應該不應該是人類不停定義不停推翻的規條。其實那些愛護動物的好主人把寵物閹割，牠們怎會同意、這怎會不是暴力、又何曾應該？這些主 人卻不會被愛護動物協會起訴，相反，動物愛則受多方唾罵，如果你愛牠，牠愛你；牠想做，你想做或你不介意做；你想做，牠沒有反抗甚至表現雀躍，也許溝通和 相處不只是牠是你的寵物牠們的生活也不只是吃喝睡覺拉屎和等待主人賜牠一個伴侶。你又為哪條規條下過甚麼定義？
東拉西扯到甚麼時候，那一刻 瞥見coffer corner某位女同學在微笑，很想知道她微笑的原因是否跟我一樣，那些駐足在「酷愛三八」書攤的朋友們在看書還是聆聽？聆聽過後，假如聲稱對情慾空間有 更深更廣的思考，回到個人的情慾實踐，又有沒有轉變呢？有甚麼轉變？如果沒有，又是為甚麼？
Source: 《中大學生報》零七年四月號
http://www.cusp.hk/index.php?option=com_content&task=blogcategory&id=24&Itemid=17&limit=9&limitstart=36
****************************UNQUOTE***************************
星期二, 五月 01, 2007
More than a job
I really hope that I can pass the upcoming Lv 1 examination.
Not only because I have paid a hefty amount of examination fee but also because doing so will allow me add varieties into my life, which is something I long to do so since last year.
Taking a rest will neither require much arrangement nor money. Reading a nice book by the lakeside in CUHK will be something very nice.
星期一, 四月 30, 2007
4 More Weeks To Go
Here it comes to the final Study session for Lv 1.
After which I shall complete all the mock exam paperS. Yeah, PaperS. There are in total 6 sets of it. Each set contain both the morning session and afternoon session. Each session... 3 hours. That will be 36 hours in total to complete all of them, for one time. I will need to at least do it twice.
A long project indeed.
But the best is yet to come.
As I was telling most of my friends nowadays that working in the investment field do require us to practice, upgrade, practice upgrade continuously...
Well, I wonder if this is the case for all the practitioners? What about those in GS, MS, JP?
I can't visualise them attending some continuous education program after work.
Maybe it is not important to "Upgrade" yourself anymore once you have attained certain level of proficiency. Bring in the business is a much more important issue by then. Isn't it??
After which I shall complete all the mock exam paperS. Yeah, PaperS. There are in total 6 sets of it. Each set contain both the morning session and afternoon session. Each session... 3 hours. That will be 36 hours in total to complete all of them, for one time. I will need to at least do it twice.
A long project indeed.
But the best is yet to come.
As I was telling most of my friends nowadays that working in the investment field do require us to practice, upgrade, practice upgrade continuously...
Well, I wonder if this is the case for all the practitioners? What about those in GS, MS, JP?
I can't visualise them attending some continuous education program after work.
Maybe it is not important to "Upgrade" yourself anymore once you have attained certain level of proficiency. Bring in the business is a much more important issue by then. Isn't it??
星期五, 四月 27, 2007
Ponder - 1
Maybe it is time for solitude.
To really look into the paths ahead from the the middle of the cross junction. There are a few issues that I have to reflect on:
1. Career
Changing from one field to another could turn to an endless nightmare with twist and turn along the path of uncertainty. Thank God that I did not get much trial and had a rather smooth transition from one to another. thinking back the jorurney that I have took to end up where I am now: graduated with an robotic engineering background, got hired by regional logisitcs company as management trainee which I worked for about 18 months, realized that logistics is really not my cup of tea and swiftly switch to a investment analytic position in a local brokerage firm.
And here I am a Reseach Analyst. (Well, it should be Jr. Research Analyst to be exact)
So how do I move from here?? What do I want 5 years from now?? Where do I want to be by then?? What kind of Work-Life Balance I want to achieve?? How much money do I want to earn?? What do I want to achieve??
2. Family
3. Marriage
4. Faith
to be continued...
To really look into the paths ahead from the the middle of the cross junction. There are a few issues that I have to reflect on:
1. Career
Changing from one field to another could turn to an endless nightmare with twist and turn along the path of uncertainty. Thank God that I did not get much trial and had a rather smooth transition from one to another. thinking back the jorurney that I have took to end up where I am now: graduated with an robotic engineering background, got hired by regional logisitcs company as management trainee which I worked for about 18 months, realized that logistics is really not my cup of tea and swiftly switch to a investment analytic position in a local brokerage firm.
And here I am a Reseach Analyst. (Well, it should be Jr. Research Analyst to be exact)
So how do I move from here?? What do I want 5 years from now?? Where do I want to be by then?? What kind of Work-Life Balance I want to achieve?? How much money do I want to earn?? What do I want to achieve??
2. Family
3. Marriage
4. Faith
to be continued...
星期二, 四月 17, 2007
It is not just my Job. It is my Career.
It has been 4 months since I have become an investment analyst. I know that the road ahead is not easy, and it is going to be tough. But after all, this is my own choice - to pursue a career that I really enjoy.
There are very few who really know what he want and even fewer who can get close to what he really want.
I am glad that I am one of those lucky one who have made it to second category.
There are very few who really know what he want and even fewer who can get close to what he really want.
I am glad that I am one of those lucky one who have made it to second category.
星期五, 三月 16, 2007
10 more weeks to go
Preparation for the CFA examination has come to the final 10 weeks count down. And there are still many topics to cover:
1. Financial Statement Analysis
2. Corporate Finance
3. Equities Investments, Alternative Investment & Portfolio Management
4. Debts & Derivative Investments
These are the 4 books that I have yet to revise. I am really behind the schedule, though I have already done 7 study sessions coving Ethics, Economics and Quantitative Methods out of the total 18 study sessions.
Time to double up!
1. Financial Statement Analysis
2. Corporate Finance
3. Equities Investments, Alternative Investment & Portfolio Management
4. Debts & Derivative Investments
These are the 4 books that I have yet to revise. I am really behind the schedule, though I have already done 7 study sessions coving Ethics, Economics and Quantitative Methods out of the total 18 study sessions.
Time to double up!
星期日, 三月 11, 2007
無知，也許是種祝福。
「你想太多了。」
有朋友說我把世界看得太透，亦有朋友說我想太多。世界有太多太多的煩惱，想太多亦不能改變什麼。但看不見，聽不到並不是我的選擇。每當有朋友問我如何看待回港讀書的決定，我都和他們說在中大學到最有用的就是勇敢的去問，勇敢的去面對生命的無奈，社會的不公平…
有朋友說我把世界看得太透，亦有朋友說我想太多。世界有太多太多的煩惱，想太多亦不能改變什麼。但看不見，聽不到並不是我的選擇。每當有朋友問我如何看待回港讀書的決定，我都和他們說在中大學到最有用的就是勇敢的去問，勇敢的去面對生命的無奈，社會的不公平…
星期日, 二月 18, 2007
有意義 無意義
幾晚前和一個老朋友敘舊，彼此訴說近況。工作、信仰、結婚無所不談。相比起平日漫無意義的寒暄實在多。
「雖然我很享受我現在的工作，但我仍然覺得很多東西都沒什麼意義。」
「那你認為什麼有意義呢？」
我思索良久…
「家人。愛情。小孩…還有窮人」
「窮人？那一類的窮人？」
「其實我家附近都有很多窮人。」
「很多窮人？是嗎？」
「是呀。早晚都見到。每早上班經過公園時都會看到還在睡覺的路宿者。另外，晚上回家時都會看到一個在街市拾紙皮的女人。」
「拾紙皮的女人？」
「嗯。那個女人大概60多歲吧。每天晚上都會在家附近的街市拾紙皮。她的背有問題，整個人站也站不直，整個人好像被摺成一半，眼睛看到的只是自己的膝蓋。」
我作狀彎下身子，嘗試令他明白我在說什麼。
「還有另外一個露宿者，他每晚都會到我住的那橦唐樓下睡覺，每晚如是。」
「那你對人憐憫的心還是很正常噢…」
我倆相對苦笑一下，也不知道令對方感到無力的是窮人的苦況，還是每一個人的身不由己。
兩個小時後，大家各自回到自己的生活。
「雖然我很享受我現在的工作，但我仍然覺得很多東西都沒什麼意義。」
「那你認為什麼有意義呢？」
我思索良久…
「家人。愛情。小孩…還有窮人」
「窮人？那一類的窮人？」
「其實我家附近都有很多窮人。」
「很多窮人？是嗎？」
「是呀。早晚都見到。每早上班經過公園時都會看到還在睡覺的路宿者。另外，晚上回家時都會看到一個在街市拾紙皮的女人。」
「拾紙皮的女人？」
「嗯。那個女人大概60多歲吧。每天晚上都會在家附近的街市拾紙皮。她的背有問題，整個人站也站不直，整個人好像被摺成一半，眼睛看到的只是自己的膝蓋。」
我作狀彎下身子，嘗試令他明白我在說什麼。
「還有另外一個露宿者，他每晚都會到我住的那橦唐樓下睡覺，每晚如是。」
「那你對人憐憫的心還是很正常噢…」
我倆相對苦笑一下，也不知道令對方感到無力的是窮人的苦況，還是每一個人的身不由己。
兩個小時後，大家各自回到自己的生活。
星期日, 二月 11, 2007
星期三, 一月 31, 2007
Saving Plan ver1
Was talking with my gf about the "future plan" and once I again started to punch my financial calculator eagerly. Although the budget and the final number on the cal did not match perfectly, I do somehow enjoy the forecasting process.
As I have mentioned in an earlier entry that I am going to build a simple model on marriage planning, here is the 1st version. Believe this will be a fun project to embark on and the model shall gets more sophisticated in near future, the next step to include the budgeting part into the saving plan.
It will be nice to have you feedback:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/terence_tsui/Saving_Plan_ver1
As I have mentioned in an earlier entry that I am going to build a simple model on marriage planning, here is the 1st version. Believe this will be a fun project to embark on and the model shall gets more sophisticated in near future, the next step to include the budgeting part into the saving plan.
It will be nice to have you feedback:
http://www.editgrid.com/user/terence_tsui/Saving_Plan_ver1
星期四, 一月 25, 2007
獨處
07年過了幾個星期，才可以打從心裡定下來，也許去年的確太疲倦了吧，真正休息獨處的時間也好像沒有。不止因為前公司老馮加班，更加因為有點害怕自己獨處的感覺。上一次自己獨處是幾時也不大記得了，只記得自已一個人拿著照相機跑到老遠的赤柱，過了一個很舒暢的下午。
上周日下午一個獨自走到烏溪沙，沙灘不是很美，亦看不見美女，只是看到海的時候人的確放鬆了下來。確實的大計也沒有想到很多，帶去的記事簿和筆亦沒有甚樣用到，也許自已太享受這樣漫無目的的輕鬆吧。
輕鬆的我，久違了。
星期一, 十二月 18, 2006
賤西瓜。賤瓜農
放工回家的途上讀到信報一篇有關山西西瓜今年夏天普遍豐收以至市價崩盤的報導。（由於供應過多，需求不變，以至整體價格下跌。）如何崩盤？一斤西瓜賣兩分錢！恐怕你我也想不到吧？平時我們在超市或市場買回家大快朵頣的夏日水果王居然如此賤。
但如何賤，也賤不過西瓜農的賤命！
山西一名農婦因為丈夫把西瓜載到城裡去賣時不但西瓜沒賣著，還被交警發了一張四佰多元的單子，而上吊自殺。
以當時的價格，一輛農用三輪車的西瓜只能賣二十至三十人民幣。
她，用生命來回應兩分錢一斤的瓜價…
星期六, 十二月 16, 2006
土混混 vs 真師父
近日在SCMP*上看到一個財務策劃的退休個案分析，分別由一位在某大保險公司副總裁及一位在某小型獨立理財顧問的總裁各自提供分析及度身訂造的方案。前者主要陳述不同投資產品的功能及風險以及在某假設回報下便如何地能將問題迎刃而解。雖然兩位皆擁有CFP銜頭，但是後者的分析不只包括前者所提及的各項因素，而且將醫療、個案中三個子女供養父母的意願，以及各人的稅務利益包括在整體方案的考慮因素之內。
雙贏大計
話說前幾日阿媽突然問：「點啊，有無計劃幾時同小文結婚啊？」好彩我當時並唔係食梗飯…
最後點？支吾以對是也。但細心一想，自己拍拖已將近五年，加上年事已‘高’，也該為自己打算一下。既然自己學習財務策劃亦略有所成，何不學以至用？而且做個Excel Model出來也不是太難的事，做得好既甚至可以供諸同好。雙贏！
有興趣既朋友可以食住花生先，熱心既朋友亦可比吓意見，年底前應該可以見到Prototype。
星期五, 十二月 15, 2006
多謝
踏足社會有一年半了，發覺自己經歷了許多。由初時在大學第三年中段如何兼顧求職及學業，得到一家跨國物流企業聘用為其中一名管理見習生，到現在轉去一家本地投資公司當自己喜歡的投資分析工作。整個轉變的過程對我來說，是一個充滿色彩的學習過程。很高興當中有很多良師益友與我一同經歷許許多多的快樂、失意、興奮、焦慮，並為我無私地提出他們的見解。萍水相逢的過客或深交的好友我都想一一多謝。因為你的肩頭，我才有可能看得更高更遠。
If I had seen further than other men
It was only because I had stood on the shoulders of giants.
Thank you.
星期一, 十二月 11, 2006
家課一：抄書
概要
金價自十月尾段起作強勁反彈，現貨價於12月1日揚升至四個月的高位，報每盎司649.95美元。
近期金價的升勢主要由於美元回軟帶動，由於有更多跡象顯示美國經濟放緩，市場預期美國聯儲局可能提早在第一季減息以刺激增長。
反之，自2005年起經過五次調高息口後，歐洲央行將會繼續收緊銀根，至於日本央行相信亦傾向調高息口。息口前景迴異可能削弱美元長久以來的息差優勢，令美元對其他主要貨幣的表現受壓。
金價於2007年的前景仍然向好。首先，在黃金買家已逐漸適應全價停留在每盎司600美元以上水平的情況下，實質買賣盤可能會反彈。此外，於投資者視黃金為其中一種投資工具，投資需求亦會揚升。美元相對仍然疲弱，金價似乎已有足夠的動力留守在600美元以上水平。事實上，市場最新的預測為金價於2007年底將處於接近670美元水平。
金價回復升勢
金價自十月尾起開始作強勁反彈，現貨價於12月1日揚升至四個月的高位，報每盎司649.85美元。在近期顯著上升以前，金價於九月份及十月份的大部份時間在每盎司550美元間徘徊。從年初至今，現貨價已上升空約22%,，較2005年錄得的18%升幅為大。
美元走弱令金價揚升
由於市場對聯儲局可能會被迫提前在2007年第一季調低息口以刺激疲弱增長的預期有所提升，美元回軟，促使金價在近期反彈。
經過五年的快速增長後，目前樓市轉弱。在面對按揭利率上升以及住宅樓宇價格創新高的情況下，潛在買家購置房屋的負擔力下降，導致新屋及二手房屋銷售受壓，以致囤積大量房屋庫存，並將樓價推低。
由於房地產市場為帶動消費開支增長的主要動力，樓市轉弱可能會滲透至其他層面，並對整體經濟構成負面影響。美國公佈一連串疲弱經濟數據令市場對上述憂慮增加，導致利率期貨市場預期聯儲局在2007年第一季將會減息的機會很高。
反之，歐羅區公佈的經濟數據傾向強勁，以及歐洲央行自2005年12月以來五次調高息口後預期會繼續加息。此外，由於憂慮加息會對日本經濟增長造成打擊，以致其取態較為猶豫的日本央行相信亦傾向會收緊銀根。息口前景迴異可能會削弱美元長久以來的息差優勢，為美元淡倉提供足夠的藉口沽售美元，將其英鎊及歐羅分別推低至接近十四年及二十個月的低位。
倘若美元下滑，作為另類投資的價值因而上升，故傳統上美元與黃金的關係呈逆向。
儘管今年的波動較大，金價於2006年走勢強勁，現貨價揚升約22%。事實上，金價自2001年起已建立升勢，金價自該段時間起錄得超過一倍升幅。經過過去五年顯著揚升後，目前主要問題是金價的升勢能否延續至2007年。
金價基本前景向好。由於買家逐漸適應金價停留在每盎司600美元以上水平，實質需求可能會反彈。據世界黃金協會公佈的數據顯示，珠寶需求於2006年首兩季顯著下跌後，第三季與去年同期相比上升1%。再者，由於投資者視黃金為其中一種投資工具，故投資亦預期上升。交易所買賣基金的黃金需求在2005年揚升59.9%後，於今年首三個季度再升45%。
作為對沖基金匯價的黃金的價值亦可能進一步上升。由於市場預期聯儲局在2007年內開始減息，但其他中央銀行則繼續收緊銀根，息差優勢減退可能會令美元的情緒轉弱。因此，金價似乎仍然有足夠的動力令其維持在600美元以上水平，儘管其可能會繼續波動。事實上，市場最新預測金價於2007年底將處於接近670美元水平。
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